To show that hellish scenarios are worth ignoring, you have to show not only that they’re improbable, but also that they’re improbable enough to overcome the factor (utility of oblivionish scenario—utility of hellish scenario)/(utility of heavenish scenario—utility of oblivionish scenario), which as far as I can tell could be anywhere between tiny and huge.
As for global totalitarian dictatorships, I doubt they’d last for more than millions of years without something happening to them.
To show that hellish scenarios are worth ignoring, you have to show not only that they’re improbable, but also that they’re improbable enough to overcome the factor (utility of oblivionish scenario—utility of hellish scenario)/(utility of heavenish scenario—utility of oblivionish scenario), which as far as I can tell could be anywhere between tiny and huge.
As for global totalitarian dictatorships, I doubt they’d last for more than millions of years without something happening to them.