I bet the market down from 58% to 40% which seems like a steal on the merits. Seems like it will mostly lock up my money though given the long resolution timeline, unless people eventually settle down to a significantly lower consensus.
Yes—this surfaces the issue with long-term markets, where it’s not worth the investment lockup when you could be trading on issues with a shorter resolution time.
We have a few tentative proposals to address this:
Issue small interest-free loans on the first M$10 bet (Scott’s proposal)
Margin loans against the value of of your long-term bets
Set up derivative markets (e.g. “What will the IMO market be at on April 1st 2022”)
Demurrage, where we charge a fee for cash balances
I’m partial to Scott’s proposal, though it may be technically tricky to implement...
I bet the market down from 58% to 40% which seems like a steal on the merits. Seems like it will mostly lock up my money though given the long resolution timeline, unless people eventually settle down to a significantly lower consensus.
Yes—this surfaces the issue with long-term markets, where it’s not worth the investment lockup when you could be trading on issues with a shorter resolution time.
We have a few tentative proposals to address this:
Issue small interest-free loans on the first M$10 bet (Scott’s proposal)
Margin loans against the value of of your long-term bets
Set up derivative markets (e.g. “What will the IMO market be at on April 1st 2022”)
Demurrage, where we charge a fee for cash balances
I’m partial to Scott’s proposal, though it may be technically tricky to implement...