I believe most people who work in deep learning (but don’t have inside evidence about particular theorem-proving efforts currently underway) are on Eliezer’s side and would go even higher than 16%.
In the broader world I think probably it’s more divided, and I’d guess that most academics in AI would be on my side though I’m not sure.
This is definitely a thing that makes me uneasy about the bet (I would have loved for Eliezer to be the one with the more contrarian take, and for my position to be closer to 50-50, but you get what you get).
Flagging for posterity that I’d take Eliezer’s side of this bet (but I think for different reasons than him).
I believe most people who work in deep learning (but don’t have inside evidence about particular theorem-proving efforts currently underway) are on Eliezer’s side and would go even higher than 16%.
In the broader world I think probably it’s more divided, and I’d guess that most academics in AI would be on my side though I’m not sure.
This is definitely a thing that makes me uneasy about the bet (I would have loved for Eliezer to be the one with the more contrarian take, and for my position to be closer to 50-50, but you get what you get).
Makes sense. (Also, to be clear, I should have mentioned that my earlier claim was not based on inside evidence of that kind.)