I’m not really sure whether or not we disagree. I did put “3%-10% probability of AGI in the next 10-15ish years”.
I think the following few years will change this estimate significantly either way.
Well, I hope that this is a one-time thing. I hope that if in a few years we’re still around, people go “Damn! We maybe should have been putting a bit more juice into decades-long plans! And we should do so now, though a couple more years belatedly!”, rather than going “This time for sure!” and continuing to not invest in the decades-long plans. My impression is that a lot of people used to work on decades-long plans and then shifted recently to 3-10 year plans, so it’s not like everyone’s being obviously incoherent. But I also have an impression that the investment in decades-plans is mistakenly low; when I propose decades-plans, pretty nearly everyone isn’t interested, with their cited reason being that AGI comes within a decade.
I’m not really sure whether or not we disagree. I did put “3%-10% probability of AGI in the next 10-15ish years”.
Well, I hope that this is a one-time thing. I hope that if in a few years we’re still around, people go “Damn! We maybe should have been putting a bit more juice into decades-long plans! And we should do so now, though a couple more years belatedly!”, rather than going “This time for sure!” and continuing to not invest in the decades-long plans. My impression is that a lot of people used to work on decades-long plans and then shifted recently to 3-10 year plans, so it’s not like everyone’s being obviously incoherent. But I also have an impression that the investment in decades-plans is mistakenly low; when I propose decades-plans, pretty nearly everyone isn’t interested, with their cited reason being that AGI comes within a decade.