Don’t you think that once scaling hits the wall (assuming it does) the influx of people will be redirected towards natural philosophy of Intelligence and ML?
Yep! To some extent. That’s what I meant by “It also seems like people are distracted now.”, above. I have a denser probability on AGI in 2037 than on AGI in 2027, for that reason.
Natural philosophy is hard, and somewhat has serial dependencies, and IMO it’s unclear how close we are. (That uncertainty includes “plausibly we’re very very close, just another insight about how to tie things together will open the floodgates”.) Also there’s other stuff for people to do. They can just quiesce into bullshit jobs; they can work on harvesting stuff; they can leave the field; they can work on incremental progress.
Don’t you think that once scaling hits the wall (assuming it does) the influx of people will be redirected towards natural philosophy of Intelligence and ML?
Yep! To some extent. That’s what I meant by “It also seems like people are distracted now.”, above. I have a denser probability on AGI in 2037 than on AGI in 2027, for that reason.
Natural philosophy is hard, and somewhat has serial dependencies, and IMO it’s unclear how close we are. (That uncertainty includes “plausibly we’re very very close, just another insight about how to tie things together will open the floodgates”.) Also there’s other stuff for people to do. They can just quiesce into bullshit jobs; they can work on harvesting stuff; they can leave the field; they can work on incremental progress.