I appreciate how Toby Ord considers “knock-on effects” in his modelling of existential risks, as presented in “The Precipice”. A catastrophe doesn’t necessarily have to cause extinction for it to be considered an existential threat. The reason being knock-on effects, which would undoubtedly impair our preparedness for what comes next.
Is this isomorphic to the framing of existential risk as one category? (Which is not something I came up with, I just distilled the idea.) It still seems to me like the idea that first- and second-order effects are qualitatively different is just a mistake born of the “risk from xxx” framing.
I appreciate how Toby Ord considers “knock-on effects” in his modelling of existential risks, as presented in “The Precipice”. A catastrophe doesn’t necessarily have to cause extinction for it to be considered an existential threat. The reason being knock-on effects, which would undoubtedly impair our preparedness for what comes next.
Is this isomorphic to the framing of existential risk as one category? (Which is not something I came up with, I just distilled the idea.) It still seems to me like the idea that first- and second-order effects are qualitatively different is just a mistake born of the “risk from xxx” framing.
Yes, it looks isomorphic. Thanks for sharing your write-up. You’ve captured this idea well.