Yeah, the point that risks from nuclear war would be coupled with risks from great power conflict is a good one. I expect this to be more of a problem in the future, but there could be some risks at present from secret bioweapon systems or other kinds of WMDs.
My mainline expectation is that in a nuclear war scenario, chemical, biological, and conventional weapon effects would be dwarfed by the effects from nuclear weapons. This is based on my understanding of the major powers deterrence strategy, but might be wrong if there are secret weapons I’m not aware of. The logic of deterrence makes this a little less likely, fortunately. The whole point of a deterrent is lost if you keep it a secret. Of course it’s possible that it’s kept secret from the public but not from other countries, but this seems harder to keep secret, especially since it relies on one’s potential enemies to keep it secret.
My mainline expectation is that in a nuclear war scenario, chemical, biological, and conventional weapon effects would be dwarfed by the effects from nuclear weapons.
I would classify biological weapons as more dangerous than nuclear, but that’s a different topic. Besides, biological and nuclear warfare don’t mix well—without commercial air travel and trade biological agents don’t spread well.
Yeah, the point that risks from nuclear war would be coupled with risks from great power conflict is a good one. I expect this to be more of a problem in the future, but there could be some risks at present from secret bioweapon systems or other kinds of WMDs.
My mainline expectation is that in a nuclear war scenario, chemical, biological, and conventional weapon effects would be dwarfed by the effects from nuclear weapons. This is based on my understanding of the major powers deterrence strategy, but might be wrong if there are secret weapons I’m not aware of. The logic of deterrence makes this a little less likely, fortunately. The whole point of a deterrent is lost if you keep it a secret. Of course it’s possible that it’s kept secret from the public but not from other countries, but this seems harder to keep secret, especially since it relies on one’s potential enemies to keep it secret.
I would classify biological weapons as more dangerous than nuclear, but that’s a different topic. Besides, biological and nuclear warfare don’t mix well—without commercial air travel and trade biological agents don’t spread well.