I similarly suspect automation is not really happening in a dramatically different way thus far. Maybe that will change in the future (I think it will), but it’s not here yet.
So why so much concern about automation?
I suspect because of something they don’t look at in this study much (based on the summary): displacement. People are likely being displaced from jobs into other jobs by automation or the perception of automation and some few of those exit the labor market rather than switch into new jobs. Further, those who do move to new jobs likely disprefer their new jobs because they require different skills, they are less skilled at them immediately after switching, and due to lack of initial skill these new jobs initially pay less than the old jobs. This creates compelling evidence for the automation “destroying” jobs story even though the bigger picture makes it clear that this isn’t really happening, in particular because the destroying job story ignores the contrary evidence from what happens after a worker has been in a new job after displacement for a few years and have recovered to pre-displacement levels of wages.
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/12/automation-so-far-business-as-usual.html
I similarly suspect automation is not really happening in a dramatically different way thus far. Maybe that will change in the future (I think it will), but it’s not here yet.
So why so much concern about automation?
I suspect because of something they don’t look at in this study much (based on the summary): displacement. People are likely being displaced from jobs into other jobs by automation or the perception of automation and some few of those exit the labor market rather than switch into new jobs. Further, those who do move to new jobs likely disprefer their new jobs because they require different skills, they are less skilled at them immediately after switching, and due to lack of initial skill these new jobs initially pay less than the old jobs. This creates compelling evidence for the automation “destroying” jobs story even though the bigger picture makes it clear that this isn’t really happening, in particular because the destroying job story ignores the contrary evidence from what happens after a worker has been in a new job after displacement for a few years and have recovered to pre-displacement levels of wages.