ChristianKl answers How do Bayesians tell what does and doesn’t count as evidence (which, e.g., hypotheses may render more or less probable if true)? Is it possible for something to fuzzily-be evidence?

[ChristianKl]

Evaluating information as evidence is a skill. It’s a skill that’s learned with practice. Being good at most skills isn’t about simply following a set of explicit rules but learning how to execute the skill with real world practice.

One good practice for that is making forcasts about how likely certain future events happen to be.