In a true/false question that is true with probability p, if you assign probability q, your probability of losing is p(1−q)^2+(1−p)q^2. (The probabily the answer is true and you spin false twice plus the probability the answer is false and you spin true twice.)
This probability is minimized when its derivative with respect to q is 0, or at the boundary. This derivative is −2p(1−q)+2(1−p)q, whis is 0 when q=p. We now know the minimum is achieved when q is 0, 1, or p. The probability of losing when q=0 is p. The probability of losing when q=1 is 1−p. The probability of losing when q=p is p(1−p), which is the lowest of the three options.
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In a true/false question that is true with probability p, if you assign probability q, your probability of losing is p(1−q)^2+(1−p)q^2. (The probabily the answer is true and you spin false twice plus the probability the answer is false and you spin true twice.)
This probability is minimized when its derivative with respect to q is 0, or at the boundary. This derivative is −2p(1−q)+2(1−p)q, whis is 0 when q=p. We now know the minimum is achieved when q is 0, 1, or p. The probability of losing when q=0 is p. The probability of losing when q=1 is 1−p. The probability of losing when q=p is p(1−p), which is the lowest of the three options.
This is called either Brier or quadratic scoring, not sure which.
Not exactly. Its expected value is the same as the expected value of the Brier score, but the score itself is either 0 or 1.