Eh, elections seem hard to update on though. Before the election, I thought Clinton was 70% likely to win or so, because that’s what Nate Silver said. Then Trump won. Was I wrong? Maybe, but it’s not statistically significant at even p = 0.05.
So just looking at U.S. presidential elections, you’ll never have enough data to see if you’re calibrated or not. I guess you can seriously geek out on politics, and follow and make predictions for lots of local and foreign elections also. At that point, it’s a serious hobby though, I’m much more of a casual.
No intentions on leaning heavily on US politics, since I’ve already hairy Italian politics that is more relevant to me... I’ll just change a couple of parameters in my model of US, as per answer to Gunnar.
Eh, elections seem hard to update on though. Before the election, I thought Clinton was 70% likely to win or so, because that’s what Nate Silver said. Then Trump won. Was I wrong? Maybe, but it’s not statistically significant at even p = 0.05.
So just looking at U.S. presidential elections, you’ll never have enough data to see if you’re calibrated or not. I guess you can seriously geek out on politics, and follow and make predictions for lots of local and foreign elections also. At that point, it’s a serious hobby though, I’m much more of a casual.
No intentions on leaning heavily on US politics, since I’ve already hairy Italian politics that is more relevant to me...
I’ll just change a couple of parameters in my model of US, as per answer to Gunnar.