I don’t have a background in quantum computing, so there’s a chance I’m misinterpreting the question in some way, but I learned a lot doing the research for the forecast (like that there’s a lot of controversy regarding whether quantum supremacy has been achieved yet).
Amusingly, during my research I stumbled upon this Metaculus question about when a >49 qubit quantum computer would be created which resolved ambiguously due to the issue of how well-controlled the qubits are. For the purposes of this forecast I assumed it would resolve based on the raw number of qubits, without adjusting for control.
My forecast is based on:
The past trend of increasing qubitsin quantum devices
The current leading commercially available device having 20 qubits
Google’s plans to make Sycamore, which has 54 qubits, available
I don’t have a background in quantum computing, so there’s a chance I’m misinterpreting the question in some way, but I learned a lot doing the research for the forecast (like that there’s a lot of controversy regarding whether quantum supremacy has been achieved yet).
Amusingly, during my research I stumbled upon this Metaculus question about when a >49 qubit quantum computer would be created which resolved ambiguously due to the issue of how well-controlled the qubits are. For the purposes of this forecast I assumed it would resolve based on the raw number of qubits, without adjusting for control.