Here’s my prediction for this! I predicted a median of March 1, 2029. Below are some of the data sources that informed my thinking.
Base rates:
iPhone: ~30% of US owns an iphone in 2020. This is ~10 years from when it was launched in 2007.
Smartphones: Launched in 1992, 30% penetration in 2011 (19 years)
Tablet: iPad launched in 2010, tablets reached 30% penetration in 2013 (3 years, not a perfect reference point because iPads are just a subset of tablets)
How many people currently use AR/AR glasses?
6% of the US used a VR headset once a month in 2018
18% used AR in 2018
I assume most of this is iphone apps, including Pokemon Go that had 60 million monthly active users in 2017
150,000 snapchat spectacles were sold in 2017
When will major AR glasses products be released?
Apple AR glasses released in 2023
Facebook AR will be released 2023 – 2025
Focals 2.0 planned to ship in 2020
Evan Spiegal says smart glasses are 10 years away from mass adoption (2019)
Related Metaculus question: When will sales of a non-screen technology be greater than sales of a screen technology?
Here’s my prediction for this! I predicted a median of March 1, 2029. Below are some of the data sources that informed my thinking.
Base rates:
iPhone: ~30% of US owns an iphone in 2020. This is ~10 years from when it was launched in 2007.
Smartphones: Launched in 1992, 30% penetration in 2011 (19 years)
Tablet: iPad launched in 2010, tablets reached 30% penetration in 2013 (3 years, not a perfect reference point because iPads are just a subset of tablets)
How many people currently use AR/AR glasses?
6% of the US used a VR headset once a month in 2018
18% used AR in 2018
I assume most of this is iphone apps, including Pokemon Go that had 60 million monthly active users in 2017
150,000 snapchat spectacles were sold in 2017
When will major AR glasses products be released?
Apple AR glasses released in 2023
Facebook AR will be released 2023 – 2025
Focals 2.0 planned to ship in 2020
Evan Spiegal says smart glasses are 10 years away from mass adoption (2019)
Related Metaculus question: When will sales of a non-screen technology be greater than sales of a screen technology?