We don’t have many examples of civilizations passing through or failing at different filters, so it’s all pretty darned theoretical anyway. A lot depends on whether your 1 in 10 is for civilizations like the one under consideration, or from some distribution of civilization-types.
If we had actual objective measures of real filters, I think your gut has something. There’s likely some characteristics which vary between civilizations that make for a correlation between passing some sets of filters (like those who pass Y tend to pass X more easily than those who fail Y). But again, that’s a bit sketchy when we know of no actual civilizations other than ours, so we’re pretty much making up the denominators.
We don’t have many examples of civilizations passing through or failing at different filters, so it’s all pretty darned theoretical anyway. A lot depends on whether your 1 in 10 is for civilizations like the one under consideration, or from some distribution of civilization-types.
If we had actual objective measures of real filters, I think your gut has something. There’s likely some characteristics which vary between civilizations that make for a correlation between passing some sets of filters (like those who pass Y tend to pass X more easily than those who fail Y). But again, that’s a bit sketchy when we know of no actual civilizations other than ours, so we’re pretty much making up the denominators.
Collapse has quite a few examples of civilizations failing (the book has an agenda but the examples are legit I would say).