There’s a ton hiding behind that “let’s say”. How many civilizations are we actually comparing and how similar are they to ours?
In any case, If our civilization is similar to the mean civilization that faced filter X, then 10% seems right. If our civilization is different than that reference class, the chance could be quite different.
There’s a ton hiding behind that “let’s say”. How many civilizations are we actually comparing and how similar are they to ours?
In any case, If our civilization is similar to the mean civilization that faced filter X, then 10% seems right. If our civilization is different than that reference class, the chance could be quite different.