the difference between a fluke (or a bubble) and a trend is simply timescale. There are intra-day trends that look like spikes on a weekly graph.
I suspect the rate of change of human institutions and typical experiences is likely to remain somewhat high—fluctutating, but not reverting to pre-Enlightenment rates. Whether it’s “progress” or just “change” is a matter of framing. The fundamental drivers of connectivity and quantity of potential trading partners (intellectually as well as materially) won’t go away.
And unsustainable situations will eventually stop. A precipitous drop in population and trust (war or other mass disruption) removes that primary driver, and probably reverts a lot of changes to systems more sustainable in more difficult resource situations. I hope it’s a smooth increase until the heat death of the universe. But that’s not the bulk of my probability estimate.
the difference between a fluke (or a bubble) and a trend is simply timescale. There are intra-day trends that look like spikes on a weekly graph.
I suspect the rate of change of human institutions and typical experiences is likely to remain somewhat high—fluctutating, but not reverting to pre-Enlightenment rates. Whether it’s “progress” or just “change” is a matter of framing. The fundamental drivers of connectivity and quantity of potential trading partners (intellectually as well as materially) won’t go away.
And unsustainable situations will eventually stop. A precipitous drop in population and trust (war or other mass disruption) removes that primary driver, and probably reverts a lot of changes to systems more sustainable in more difficult resource situations. I hope it’s a smooth increase until the heat death of the universe. But that’s not the bulk of my probability estimate.