Everything you’re saying fits the common narrative; I just think there’s a roughly 80 percent chance that it’s wrong.
I’m happy to bet on this. I propose the following operationalization:
Solar energy will be said to be successful if there is at least one year prior to (or including) 2040 where the total solar energy generated (excluding indirect pathways [which includes fossil fuels and wind], but including all forms of directly turning sunlight, or the sun itself, into human-usable energy, including by photosynthesis-based agriculture) is equal to the entirety of energy consumption in 2017 (113,000 TWh according to wikipedia).
If solar energy is “successful” according to this criterion, then you would pay me $30, if not, then I would pay you $15 (this ratio should be more than fair if you believe there is an 80% chance my analysis is wrong—especially since there are scenarios where my analysis is still valid, but the bet resolves in your favour)
Since my side of the bet implies that the internet is not likely to exist by 2040 and I’d never find you if I won, this bet is not appealing. It is not possible to take a short financial position on civilization. However, if settlement could be arranged and the stakes weren’t chump change, in principle I’d take the bet.
If you believe that your side of the bet is highly correlated with civilizational collapse, an alternative would be for me to pay you $X upon agreeing to the bet, and then for you to pay $3X (= X + 2X) conditional on the bet resolving in my favor. Realistically, the amounts would be adjusted for the risk of not collecting, plus economic growth and inflation, so not exactly a 3x ratio.
As for stakes, what stakes would you consider to be “not chump change”?
I’m happy to bet on this. I propose the following operationalization:
Solar energy will be said to be successful if there is at least one year prior to (or including) 2040 where the total solar energy generated (excluding indirect pathways [which includes fossil fuels and wind], but including all forms of directly turning sunlight, or the sun itself, into human-usable energy, including by photosynthesis-based agriculture) is equal to the entirety of energy consumption in 2017 (113,000 TWh according to wikipedia).
If solar energy is “successful” according to this criterion, then you would pay me $30, if not, then I would pay you $15 (this ratio should be more than fair if you believe there is an 80% chance my analysis is wrong—especially since there are scenarios where my analysis is still valid, but the bet resolves in your favour)
Since my side of the bet implies that the internet is not likely to exist by 2040 and I’d never find you if I won, this bet is not appealing. It is not possible to take a short financial position on civilization. However, if settlement could be arranged and the stakes weren’t chump change, in principle I’d take the bet.
If you believe that your side of the bet is highly correlated with civilizational collapse, an alternative would be for me to pay you $X upon agreeing to the bet, and then for you to pay $3X (= X + 2X) conditional on the bet resolving in my favor. Realistically, the amounts would be adjusted for the risk of not collecting, plus economic growth and inflation, so not exactly a 3x ratio.
As for stakes, what stakes would you consider to be “not chump change”?
I’m not a gambler by temperment, so I’m just not very interested in betting.