I am struggling with the same question, my current hypothesis:
it’s “European Gas Wars”—new method of gas (mining??) from drilling in shell rocks see https://youtu.be/If61baWF4GE puts Ukrain into top position as gas exporter in Europe and nullifies Russian position as gas exporter. It’s quite plausable and verifiable—Shell signed a multi-billion contract with Ukranian president in 2013 to build infrastructure.
Russia does somebodies else bidding—Chineese to push US out of world dominance, i.e. this hypothesis assumes there are few more moves after Ukraine invasion and escalation of conflict through the world
From Russian perspective this invasion makes no sense at all—i.e. if Putin wanted to defend Donbass, 8 years ago was a right time, if NATO is a defence force, and Ukraine can be part of NATO, why Russia can’t be part of NATO (against China for example??? IMHO NATO is a construct designed to be against someone).
I could come up with few “retaliation” strategies from Russian perspective which doesn’t involve invasion: i.e build cosmodrom in Cuba (with full radio location equipment) and I think Putin advisors can come up with better once.
It’s Putin’s “Bay of Pigs”, but it lack a leader to re-instate back as president of Ukraine.
I had watched that video too. Seems like a shallow motive. As some commenters pointed out, there must be a lot of undiscovered gas and oil reserves in Siberia yet. Could have some weight, but not a lot.
Seems quite plausible. The 3 world powers are undeniably NATO+allies, Russia and China. 2 going against one another heavily favors the 3rd (I also have some paranoid thoughts regarding the virus on this matter). However, the NATO+allies bloc is quite large. We have Australia, Japan, South Korea, and probably also most of South America. And indeed, I would be happy if Russia was part of NATO, considering the Chinese threat. On the other hand, on real matters we have much more to fear from Russia’s behavior than China’s. Russia has made way more wars, has a much worse human rights record, and has shown much more adversity towards us, with a much more unstable leadership. China seems peaceful, the question is with a dictatorship it can always change over night.
Doesn’t seem too likely, takes much more than a Bay of Pigs to conquer Ukraine.
If Ukraine can sell gas to the EU, then Russia looses an immensely strong advantage. The size of Russian gas reserves in Siberia makes no difference for that. All that is needed is for Ukraine to have enough gas to supply Europe for another few years/decades, until the Green energy revolution comes along further.
I am struggling with the same question, my current hypothesis:
it’s “European Gas Wars”—new method of gas (mining??) from drilling in shell rocks see https://youtu.be/If61baWF4GE puts Ukrain into top position as gas exporter in Europe and nullifies Russian position as gas exporter. It’s quite plausable and verifiable—Shell signed a multi-billion contract with Ukranian president in 2013 to build infrastructure.
Russia does somebodies else bidding—Chineese to push US out of world dominance, i.e. this hypothesis assumes there are few more moves after Ukraine invasion and escalation of conflict through the world From Russian perspective this invasion makes no sense at all—i.e. if Putin wanted to defend Donbass, 8 years ago was a right time, if NATO is a defence force, and Ukraine can be part of NATO, why Russia can’t be part of NATO (against China for example??? IMHO NATO is a construct designed to be against someone). I could come up with few “retaliation” strategies from Russian perspective which doesn’t involve invasion: i.e build cosmodrom in Cuba (with full radio location equipment) and I think Putin advisors can come up with better once.
It’s Putin’s “Bay of Pigs”, but it lack a leader to re-instate back as president of Ukraine.
I had watched that video too. Seems like a shallow motive. As some commenters pointed out, there must be a lot of undiscovered gas and oil reserves in Siberia yet. Could have some weight, but not a lot.
Seems quite plausible. The 3 world powers are undeniably NATO+allies, Russia and China. 2 going against one another heavily favors the 3rd (I also have some paranoid thoughts regarding the virus on this matter). However, the NATO+allies bloc is quite large. We have Australia, Japan, South Korea, and probably also most of South America. And indeed, I would be happy if Russia was part of NATO, considering the Chinese threat. On the other hand, on real matters we have much more to fear from Russia’s behavior than China’s. Russia has made way more wars, has a much worse human rights record, and has shown much more adversity towards us, with a much more unstable leadership. China seems peaceful, the question is with a dictatorship it can always change over night.
Doesn’t seem too likely, takes much more than a Bay of Pigs to conquer Ukraine.
If Ukraine can sell gas to the EU, then Russia looses an immensely strong advantage. The size of Russian gas reserves in Siberia makes no difference for that. All that is needed is for Ukraine to have enough gas to supply Europe for another few years/decades, until the Green energy revolution comes along further.