Alright, then here is a question for you: what would Russia have to do for you to be convinced that these motivations are genuine? I’d think a full-scale invasion of Ukraine is a pretty strong signal of that, but your prior on it seems to be so low that “everything they say is propaganda that they don’t believe in” is still somehow winning over the alternative simple explanation of “they really mean what they say”.
If the motivations are genuine, they are misguided. I happen to think that the regime is intelligent and therefore isn’t that misguided. That’s why I tend to side more with domestic power-seeking explanations, like those expressed in the most upvoted comment in this post. I’m not sure of what Russia could do to convince me otherwise. “War not being enough to convince me” is an obvious fallacy.
You do realize that you’re implicitly saying everyone who disagrees with you about the legitimacy of these concerns (including me) are not intelligent, right? Are you sure this is not a case of “no true scotsman” reasoning on your part?
No, I’m not saying that at all. Foreign civilians like you and me don’t have access to the important classified information that the Kremlin has. Or to their minds. Therefore, it’s reasonable to buy into their official motivations, maybe as much as it is reasonable not to. So, sorry but that’s another obvious fallacy.
Plus, this is just my opinion, which I never claimed to be certain of.
Alright, then here is a question for you: what would Russia have to do for you to be convinced that these motivations are genuine? I’d think a full-scale invasion of Ukraine is a pretty strong signal of that, but your prior on it seems to be so low that “everything they say is propaganda that they don’t believe in” is still somehow winning over the alternative simple explanation of “they really mean what they say”.
If the motivations are genuine, they are misguided. I happen to think that the regime is intelligent and therefore isn’t that misguided. That’s why I tend to side more with domestic power-seeking explanations, like those expressed in the most upvoted comment in this post. I’m not sure of what Russia could do to convince me otherwise. “War not being enough to convince me” is an obvious fallacy.
You do realize that you’re implicitly saying everyone who disagrees with you about the legitimacy of these concerns (including me) are not intelligent, right? Are you sure this is not a case of “no true scotsman” reasoning on your part?
No, I’m not saying that at all. Foreign civilians like you and me don’t have access to the important classified information that the Kremlin has. Or to their minds. Therefore, it’s reasonable to buy into their official motivations, maybe as much as it is reasonable not to. So, sorry but that’s another obvious fallacy.
Plus, this is just my opinion, which I never claimed to be certain of.