Richard Hanania’s Public Choice Theory and the Illusion of Grand Strategy is worth reading on this general topic, although it’s mostly about the Iraq war.
He doesn’t use these words (that I recall, and I’m only partway through), but the behavior of states is less like rationality and more like autism. What I mean is that states act on internal motivations that are only very weakly coupled to the objective strategic reality.
Putin probably didn’t have access to reliable information about the capabilities of his military vs. Ukraine’s military. How could he? What General would dare tell the Tsar that the Russian army sucks? Who would dare tell the General? I’m sure the soldiers and junior officers knew they had problems, but probably had little idea how their capabilities compared to the Ukrainians’ capabilities.
On the other hand, Putin probably knows as much as anyone about the highest ranks of Russian politics. He sees those people all day, and it’s almost inevitable that they constitute the community that matters to him.
Oddly, it’s probably easier for Putin to get credible information about Ukraine’s military than about his own. Fewer people have an interest in lying to him about Ukraine.
Richard Hanania’s Public Choice Theory and the Illusion of Grand Strategy is worth reading on this general topic, although it’s mostly about the Iraq war.
He doesn’t use these words (that I recall, and I’m only partway through), but the behavior of states is less like rationality and more like autism. What I mean is that states act on internal motivations that are only very weakly coupled to the objective strategic reality.
Putin probably didn’t have access to reliable information about the capabilities of his military vs. Ukraine’s military. How could he? What General would dare tell the Tsar that the Russian army sucks? Who would dare tell the General? I’m sure the soldiers and junior officers knew they had problems, but probably had little idea how their capabilities compared to the Ukrainians’ capabilities.
On the other hand, Putin probably knows as much as anyone about the highest ranks of Russian politics. He sees those people all day, and it’s almost inevitable that they constitute the community that matters to him.
“Putin probably didn’t have access to reliable information about the capabilities of his military vs. Ukraine’s military.”
I find that hard to believe in a country with one of the most relentless intelligence services. Could be. But I wouldn’t bet on it.
The US has at least 16 intelligence agencies, but we still went into Iraq.
Oddly, it’s probably easier for Putin to get credible information about Ukraine’s military than about his own. Fewer people have an interest in lying to him about Ukraine.
Just where did you get the information about “one of the most relentless intelligence services”? It might be outdated.