Trying to map hypothesis space of the Real Reason (tm):
1: Basic western narrative. Putin feels backed into a corner, like he is slowly but surely loosing influence to the West. He has the Mafioso-nature, and thought that taking back Ukraine would be easy, popular at home, a real show of force to the rest of the world short term, and could even be an economic win long term after consolidating the new territory and work force, plus it would cement his legacy as a Great Russian Tzar. But he has lost some of his touch and miscalculated, and is now a dangerously flailing wounded animal. Maybe also influenced by the newly found gas fields i Ukraine. Most of my probability mass is spread around here, though not really sharply concentrated anywhere within this branch.
2: Basic Kremlin narrative. Russia feels backed into a corner, like they are slowly but surely loosing influence to the West. The anti Russian Rusophobic sentiment in Ukraine is real, and the Azov Battalion is only the tip of the iceberg, and Putin wants to save his fellow Russians and Little Russians from US/Nazi oppression. Zylenskyy may or may not be a literal nazi and/or Jewish, but he definitely is a literal actor, and is playing the media and the west like a grand piano, according to the whim of the US, while the US is making biological and/or chemical weapons (the story varies) in Ukrainian labs to kill all Russians. Also they never even invaded Ukraine in the first place. This story isn’t even trying to make sense.
3: Putin might have some brilliant ace up his sleeve that will make it all come into a new light once it is revealed. I’d be very surprised at this point. It would have to be a very brilliant ace indeed. The only thing that even comes to mind is that this is a ruse to fool the west into thinking that the Russian military is weaker than it really is, then ???, then profit. I don’t see it.
4: This invasion might itself be a reaction to something hidden, like a forced move due to invisible-to-us forces. Either in the Kremlin, on the streets of Russia, other world leaders, or China. If this comes from outside of Putins control, that could explain why the invasion seems so rushed and ill-prepared. But this also doesn’t really seem very likely, when the very basic narrative seems to explain what we see equally well, but has fewer moving parts. Also, he has been nourishing this conflict for years, built his troop presence for months, and has been writing and opining about Ukraine for long time, so it doesn’t look like a forced move. Hard to tell. If this was the case, then I wouldn’t really expect anyone in the west to be able to see it until after the fact.
5: There is some huge benefit that he’s after, but that we can’t see. Maybe there are some complex ethnic stuff that the west hasn’t picked up on (there surely are ethnic tensions, but the ones I’ve heard about seem inadequate to motivate all this). Maybe there is some complex strategic reason, having to do with the specific ranges of different launch systems and their positioning.… But I don’t see it. Maybe there is some forgotten secret Soviet research facility hidden somewhere in Ukraine. Maybe the Lost Ark is in a catacomb under Kyiv. This line of reasoning is highly speculative at best, but would of course be an enormous breakthrough and of extreme strategic importance if it was true and could be found out. I don’t think it is true.
6: Truly alien motives. For example, Putin has himself stated that the Cold War era was better and safer for the world, and that this dangerous era of “monopolar” power distribution is terrible. Maybe the entire point is to spark a new Cold War.
6.5: Putin is literally going mad, after years of self-imposed isolation and KGB-trained paranoia, maybe with a flavor of dementia in old age.
7: ???
In the end I don’t really feel very confused about this war. It took me a few days for the shock to wear off, but to me it frankly looks a lot clearer than most wars I’ve ever studied in detail. This is not to claim that I got it right, of course. Most of my probability mass is within the scope of the mainstream western narrative. I would like to note however, that IFF he would indeed have taken Ukraine in a short, heroic war were he was welcomed by a sizable part of the population, many of these benefits would have likely materialized, regardless of our misgivings. Crimea worked out great for him. I don’t think he miscalculated by all that much, aside from the true shape of his fighting forces, and the degree of support in the Ukrainian population (huge though those are). Note that I am in no way saying that the entire mainstream narrative is accurateor anything sweeping like that. Just that I haven’t yet found any compelling evidence far outside of it. If you feel like you have some, I’d be most interested.
“Just that I haven’t yet found any compelling evidence far outside of it. If you feel like you have some, I’d be most interested.”
8.) Nanda Ale’s comment. Which, in my opinion, isn’t the whole portion of the Real Reason (tm) either, but paints the largest portion of it so far, in my very personal and subjective opinion.
Trying to map hypothesis space of the Real Reason (tm):
1: Basic western narrative. Putin feels backed into a corner, like he is slowly but surely loosing influence to the West. He has the Mafioso-nature, and thought that taking back Ukraine would be easy, popular at home, a real show of force to the rest of the world short term, and could even be an economic win long term after consolidating the new territory and work force, plus it would cement his legacy as a Great Russian Tzar. But he has lost some of his touch and miscalculated, and is now a dangerously flailing wounded animal. Maybe also influenced by the newly found gas fields i Ukraine.
Most of my probability mass is spread around here, though not really sharply concentrated anywhere within this branch.
2: Basic Kremlin narrative. Russia feels backed into a corner, like they are slowly but surely loosing influence to the West. The
anti RussianRusophobic sentiment in Ukraine is real, and the Azov Battalion is only the tip of the iceberg, and Putin wants to save his fellow Russians and Little Russians from US/Nazi oppression. Zylenskyy may or may not be a literal nazi and/or Jewish, but he definitely is a literal actor, and is playing the media and the west like a grand piano, according to the whim of the US, while the US is making biological and/or chemical weapons (the story varies) in Ukrainian labs to kill all Russians. Also they never even invaded Ukraine in the first place.This story isn’t even trying to make sense.
3: Putin might have some brilliant ace up his sleeve that will make it all come into a new light once it is revealed. I’d be very surprised at this point. It would have to be a very brilliant ace indeed. The only thing that even comes to mind is that this is a ruse to fool the west into thinking that the Russian military is weaker than it really is, then ???, then profit.
I don’t see it.
4: This invasion might itself be a reaction to something hidden, like a forced move due to invisible-to-us forces. Either in the Kremlin, on the streets of Russia, other world leaders, or China. If this comes from outside of Putins control, that could explain why the invasion seems so rushed and ill-prepared. But this also doesn’t really seem very likely, when the very basic narrative seems to explain what we see equally well, but has fewer moving parts. Also, he has been nourishing this conflict for years, built his troop presence for months, and has been writing and opining about Ukraine for long time, so it doesn’t look like a forced move. Hard to tell. If this was the case, then I wouldn’t really expect anyone in the west to be able to see it until after the fact.
5: There is some huge benefit that he’s after, but that we can’t see. Maybe there are some complex ethnic stuff that the west hasn’t picked up on (there surely are ethnic tensions, but the ones I’ve heard about seem inadequate to motivate all this). Maybe there is some complex strategic reason, having to do with the specific ranges of different launch systems and their positioning.… But I don’t see it. Maybe there is some forgotten secret Soviet research facility hidden somewhere in Ukraine. Maybe the Lost Ark is in a catacomb under Kyiv.
This line of reasoning is highly speculative at best, but would of course be an enormous breakthrough and of extreme strategic importance if it was true and could be found out. I don’t think it is true.
6: Truly alien motives. For example, Putin has himself stated that the Cold War era was better and safer for the world, and that this dangerous era of “monopolar” power distribution is terrible. Maybe the entire point is to spark a new Cold War.
6.5: Putin is literally going mad, after years of self-imposed isolation and KGB-trained paranoia, maybe with a flavor of dementia in old age.
7: ???
In the end I don’t really feel very confused about this war. It took me a few days for the shock to wear off, but to me it frankly looks a lot clearer than most wars I’ve ever studied in detail. This is not to claim that I got it right, of course. Most of my probability mass is within the scope of the mainstream western narrative. I would like to note however, that IFF he would indeed have taken Ukraine in a short, heroic war were he was welcomed by a sizable part of the population, many of these benefits would have likely materialized, regardless of our misgivings. Crimea worked out great for him. I don’t think he miscalculated by all that much, aside from the true shape of his fighting forces, and the degree of support in the Ukrainian population (huge though those are). Note that I am in no way saying that the entire mainstream narrative is accurate or anything sweeping like that. Just that I haven’t yet found any compelling evidence far outside of it. If you feel like you have some, I’d be most interested.
“Just that I haven’t yet found any compelling evidence far outside of it. If you feel like you have some, I’d be most interested.”
8.) Nanda Ale’s comment. Which, in my opinion, isn’t the whole portion of the Real Reason (tm) either, but paints the largest portion of it so far, in my very personal and subjective opinion.