I totally thought at first that Russia would gobble up Ukraine in a few days. Now that it didn’t work out that way, everyone agrees that Putin made a bad move, presumably Putin too. And there will never be a satisfying explanation for why it was secretly a smart move, aside from counterfactuals. Had Ukraine indeed capitulated and in large part welcomed the Russian forces, the whole war would have been over by now, and Putin would in many ways have been proven right, and would have to weather some sanctions etc, but that worked ok for him last time. But it didn’t pan out that way. I agree with you that Putin is a smart guy, but that doesn’t mean he will never make mistakes, and mistakes never look smart after the fact.
I totally thought at first that Russia would gobble up Ukraine in a few days. Now that it didn’t work out that way, everyone agrees that Putin made a bad move, presumably Putin too. And there will never be a satisfying explanation for why it was secretly a smart move, aside from counterfactuals. Had Ukraine indeed capitulated and in large part welcomed the Russian forces, the whole war would have been over by now, and Putin would in many ways have been proven right, and would have to weather some sanctions etc, but that worked ok for him last time. But it didn’t pan out that way. I agree with you that Putin is a smart guy, but that doesn’t mean he will never make mistakes, and mistakes never look smart after the fact.