I also correctly bet that vaccine approval and deployment would be historically unprecedently fast and successful due to the high demand).
… and I was like “there is no way in hell that this was unprecedentedly fast”. The first likely-counterexample which sprang to mind was the 1957 influenza pandemic, so I looked it up. The timeline goes roughly like this:
The first cases were reported in Guizhou of southern China, in 1956[6][7] or in early 1957.[1][3][8][9] They were soon reported in the neighbouring province of Yunnan in late February or early March 1957.[9][10] By the middle of March, the flu had spread all over China.[9][11]
The microbiologist Maurice Hilleman was alarmed by pictures of those affected by the virus in Hong Kong that were published in The New York Times. He obtained samples of the virus from a US Navy doctor in Japan. The Public Health Service released the virus cultures to vaccine manufacturers on 12 May 1957, and a vaccine entered trials at Fort Ord on 26 July and Lowry Air Force Base on 29 July.[20]
The number of deaths peaked the week ending 17 October, with 600 reported in England and Wales.[18] The vaccine was available in the same month in the United Kingdom.
So it sure sounds like they were faster in 1957. (Though that article does note that the 1957 vaccine “was initially available only in limited quantities”. Even so, it sounds like it took about 5 months to do what took us about 11 months in the 2020 pandemic.)
My understanding is that the correct line is something like, “The COVID-19 vaccines were developed and approved unprecedentedly fast, excluding influenza vaccines.” If you want to find examples of short vaccine development, you don’t need to go all the way back to the 1957 influenza pandemic. For the 2009 Swine flu pandemic,
Analysis of the genetic divergence of the virus in samples from different cases indicated that the virus jumped to humans in 2008, probably after June, and not later than the end of November,[38] likely around September 2008… By 19 November 2009, doses of vaccine had been administered in over 16 countries.
And more obviously, the flu shot is modified yearly to keep up-to-date with new variants. Wikipedia notes that influenza vaccines were first successfully distributed in the 1940s, after developement began in 1931.
When considering vaccines other than influenza shot, this 2017 EA forum post from Peter Wildeford is informative. He tracks the development history of “important” vaccines, as he notes,
This is not intended to be an exhaustive list of all vaccines, but is intended to be exhaustive of all vaccines that would be considered “important”, such as the vaccines on the WHO list of essential medicines and notable vaccines under current development.
His bottom line:
Taken together and weighing these three sources of evidence evenly, this suggests an average of 29 years for the typical vaccine.
No vaccine on his list had been researched, manufactured, and distributed in less than one year. The closest candidate is the Rabies vaccine, which had a 4 year timeline, from 1881-1885.
I read this line:
… and I was like “there is no way in hell that this was unprecedentedly fast”. The first likely-counterexample which sprang to mind was the 1957 influenza pandemic, so I looked it up. The timeline goes roughly like this:
So it sure sounds like they were faster in 1957. (Though that article does note that the 1957 vaccine “was initially available only in limited quantities”. Even so, it sounds like it took about 5 months to do what took us about 11 months in the 2020 pandemic.)
My understanding is that the correct line is something like, “The COVID-19 vaccines were developed and approved unprecedentedly fast, excluding influenza vaccines.” If you want to find examples of short vaccine development, you don’t need to go all the way back to the 1957 influenza pandemic. For the 2009 Swine flu pandemic,
And more obviously, the flu shot is modified yearly to keep up-to-date with new variants. Wikipedia notes that influenza vaccines were first successfully distributed in the 1940s, after developement began in 1931.
When considering vaccines other than influenza shot, this 2017 EA forum post from Peter Wildeford is informative. He tracks the development history of “important” vaccines, as he notes,
His bottom line:
No vaccine on his list had been researched, manufactured, and distributed in less than one year. The closest candidate is the Rabies vaccine, which had a 4 year timeline, from 1881-1885.