You don’t need to invoke simulation or cloning. This is exactly equivalent to:
Omega will play one of two games, you won’t know which and you don’t know the distribution. Both consist of offering you a yes/no choice. If:
Game A and you take it, you get $100.
Game A and you reject it, you get $10000.
Game B and you take it, you get $1000
Game B and you reject it, you get $0.
The strategy consists of assigning a probability of which game you’re in and doing the math. No reason is given that would lead you toward any probability, so I’d probably choose “Omega is an ass and probably prefers game B because it makes players feel bad”, and take the $1000 or $100.
It’s instrumentally rational if you value money linearly in this range and assign less than about 9% probability that Omega is playing game A. There’s not enough information to determine if that probability assignment is rational.
But remember this about Omega: sure as you stand there you’re going to wind up with an ear full of cider.
You don’t need to invoke simulation or cloning. This is exactly equivalent to: Omega will play one of two games, you won’t know which and you don’t know the distribution. Both consist of offering you a yes/no choice. If: Game A and you take it, you get $100. Game A and you reject it, you get $10000. Game B and you take it, you get $1000 Game B and you reject it, you get $0.
The strategy consists of assigning a probability of which game you’re in and doing the math. No reason is given that would lead you toward any probability, so I’d probably choose “Omega is an ass and probably prefers game B because it makes players feel bad”, and take the $1000 or $100.
In a few days, I’ll upload a paper I’m currently working on. We’ll discuss the efficacy of your solution then. Is it really rational?
It’s instrumentally rational if you value money linearly in this range and assign less than about 9% probability that Omega is playing game A. There’s not enough information to determine if that probability assignment is rational.
But remember this about Omega: sure as you stand there you’re going to wind up with an ear full of cider.