Consider the outside view: if you were right, Yudkowksy would be wrong, Anna would be wrong, everyone who read your post here and didn’t upvote this revolutionary, shocking insight would be wrong. Are you sufficiently more intelligent than any of them to be confident in your conclusion?
This outside view is too limited; there are plenty of extremely intelligent people outside Less Wrong circles who agree with me. This is why I said from the beginning that the common view here came from the desire to agree with Eliezer. Notice that no one would agree and upvote without first having to disagree with all those others, and they are unlikely to do that because they have the limited outside view you mention here: they would not trust themselves to agree with me, even if it was objectively convincing.
Scott Alexander is probably one of the most unbiased people ever to be involved with Less Wrong. Look at this comment:
But keeping the original premise that it’s known that out of everyone who’s ever lived in all of history, every single virtuous Calvinist has ended up in Heaven and every single sinful Calvinist end has ended up damned—I still choose to be a virtuous Calvinist. And if the decision theorists don’t like that, they can go to hell.
Likewise, if they don’t like not smoking in the situation here, they can die of cancer.
Also, about this:
This outside view is too limited; there are plenty of extremely intelligent people outside Less Wrong circles who agree with me. This is why I said from the beginning that the common view here came from the desire to agree with Eliezer. Notice that no one would agree and upvote without first having to disagree with all those others, and they are unlikely to do that because they have the limited outside view you mention here: they would not trust themselves to agree with me, even if it was objectively convincing.
Scott Alexander is probably one of the most unbiased people ever to be involved with Less Wrong. Look at this comment:
Likewise, if they don’t like not smoking in the situation here, they can die of cancer.