The math is correct, but I don’t know if those priors are realistic. Particularly the “10%” one. I miss like 50% of calls in general, having nothing to do with who’s calling me. And remember that the “probability that she’s over me,” should be probability that she got over you since the last time you checked.
She would always get back to me within a short amount of time when she found out she missed my call. The only times that hasn’t happened was when the phone glitched and she was unaware that I’d tried to contact her.
I don’t know why it would be redundant. If she has a certain probability of getting over you every day, and you called her and interacted normally Yesterday, then for it to be 30%, would require that she had a 30% chance of getting over you in a day, before you knew anything about whether she answered your call or not.
I don’t trust my accuracy of measurement from the time we broke up until now. The relationship between us has been...uncertain, and her ignoring my calls is the first behavioral cue I can point to and say “Okay, that means there’s a good chance she’s over me.”
You explicitly broke up, and your prior for “she’s over you” is only 30%?
Also, if she was breaking up, but maybe changing her mind, a 90% chance of answering your call seems too high, but I have no experience with these matters.
The math is correct, but I don’t know if those priors are realistic. Particularly the “10%” one. I miss like 50% of calls in general, having nothing to do with who’s calling me. And remember that the “probability that she’s over me,” should be probability that she got over you since the last time you checked.
She would always get back to me within a short amount of time when she found out she missed my call. The only times that hasn’t happened was when the phone glitched and she was unaware that I’d tried to contact her.
If anything, 10% is a little high.
Wouldn’t that be redundant?
I don’t know why it would be redundant. If she has a certain probability of getting over you every day, and you called her and interacted normally Yesterday, then for it to be 30%, would require that she had a 30% chance of getting over you in a day, before you knew anything about whether she answered your call or not.
I don’t trust my accuracy of measurement from the time we broke up until now. The relationship between us has been...uncertain, and her ignoring my calls is the first behavioral cue I can point to and say “Okay, that means there’s a good chance she’s over me.”
Oh, I didn’t know you broke up.
You explicitly broke up, and your prior for “she’s over you” is only 30%?
Also, if she was breaking up, but maybe changing her mind, a 90% chance of answering your call seems too high, but I have no experience with these matters.
Ah. Sorry I didn’t make that clear.
Yeah, that particular prior is low at least partly because of my wishful thinking.
Not that it seems to have helped. =/