Hmm. Let’s consider this from the perspective of you, having just entered the simulation and considering keeping your oath. (This doesn’t directly focus on the probabilities in your question, but I did find the subsequent thoughts fascinating enough to upvote your original question for inspiration)
You currently distinctly remember 1440 minutes of cold suck.
Based on your Oath, you’re going to do do 1000 simulations. Each of these will have only 1 minute of cold suck, and 1439 minutes of identical tropical beach paradise.
There’s probably going to need to be some strategic memory blocking, in between each session, of course. If you were to do spend this time only for novel super fun, you would have 1,440,000 minutes of novel super fun. Instead, you’ll have 1,000 identical minutes of cold suck, and 1000 copies of 1,439 minutes of tropical fun. (if you make the tropical fun different each time, you might be able to reconstruct it to 1,439,000 minutes of novel super tropical fun)
Note: this will not provide any benefit to you, at this point. It would provide benefit to past you, but you’re past that you.
Although, conveniently, you are in a simulation, so you can just probabilistically steal fun from the future, again. Sure, the minute where you’re considering keeping or breaking your oath sucks, but you can set up 1000 simulations where you come by and say “Congratulations! You don’t have to follow that oath after all. I already did it for you.”
Of course, doing that means you are having 1000 more minutes of suck (where you are worried about the cost of keeping your oath) added to the future, in addition to the previous 1000 minutes of suck, where you are worried about the cold prior to upload, in addition to the 1440 minutes of cold suck you actually experienced.
If you were to continue doing this repeatedly that would add up to a large number of added minutes of suck. (How many minutes of suck would you add to your simulation if it ran forever?)
Or… you could just edit your memory to think “Yep, I fulfilled that Silly Oath.” or just decide ‘Actually, I guess I hit the one in a million chance I thought of.’ not edit your memory, and never worry about it again.
Also, if you really believe it is correct to steal time from the future to give yourself more fun now… you don’t even need a simulator or the ability to make binding verbal oaths. That technology exists right this second.
What’s odd is that this basically makes the scenario seem like the transhumanist parallel to junk food. Except, in this case from your perspective you already ate the healthy food, and you’re being given the opportunity to essentially go back in time and retroactively make it so that you ate junk food.
Which leads me to the realization “I could never take an oath strong enough to bind my future self to such a course of activity, so I’m almost certainly going to be sitting here for the next 1439 minutes freezing… Oh well.”
I imagine that for the one minute between 10:59 and 11:00, my emotional state would be dominated by excitement about whether this crazy idea will actually work, and maybe if I can snap my fingers at just a second before the time on the clock switches, it’ll be like I actually just cast a magic spell that teleports me to a tropical paradise. There’s also the fun of the moments when first arriving in a tropical paradise and realising that it actually worked, which is a bit wireheadey to invoke repeatedly 1,000 times, but the fact that it’s to fulfil a past oath should justify it enough to not feel icky about it.
Hmm. Let’s consider this from the perspective of you, having just entered the simulation and considering keeping your oath. (This doesn’t directly focus on the probabilities in your question, but I did find the subsequent thoughts fascinating enough to upvote your original question for inspiration)
You currently distinctly remember 1440 minutes of cold suck.
Based on your Oath, you’re going to do do 1000 simulations. Each of these will have only 1 minute of cold suck, and 1439 minutes of identical tropical beach paradise.
There’s probably going to need to be some strategic memory blocking, in between each session, of course. If you were to do spend this time only for novel super fun, you would have 1,440,000 minutes of novel super fun. Instead, you’ll have 1,000 identical minutes of cold suck, and 1000 copies of 1,439 minutes of tropical fun. (if you make the tropical fun different each time, you might be able to reconstruct it to 1,439,000 minutes of novel super tropical fun)
Note: this will not provide any benefit to you, at this point. It would provide benefit to past you, but you’re past that you.
Although, conveniently, you are in a simulation, so you can just probabilistically steal fun from the future, again. Sure, the minute where you’re considering keeping or breaking your oath sucks, but you can set up 1000 simulations where you come by and say “Congratulations! You don’t have to follow that oath after all. I already did it for you.”
Of course, doing that means you are having 1000 more minutes of suck (where you are worried about the cost of keeping your oath) added to the future, in addition to the previous 1000 minutes of suck, where you are worried about the cold prior to upload, in addition to the 1440 minutes of cold suck you actually experienced.
If you were to continue doing this repeatedly that would add up to a large number of added minutes of suck. (How many minutes of suck would you add to your simulation if it ran forever?)
Or… you could just edit your memory to think “Yep, I fulfilled that Silly Oath.” or just decide ‘Actually, I guess I hit the one in a million chance I thought of.’ not edit your memory, and never worry about it again.
Also, if you really believe it is correct to steal time from the future to give yourself more fun now… you don’t even need a simulator or the ability to make binding verbal oaths. That technology exists right this second.
What’s odd is that this basically makes the scenario seem like the transhumanist parallel to junk food. Except, in this case from your perspective you already ate the healthy food, and you’re being given the opportunity to essentially go back in time and retroactively make it so that you ate junk food.
Which leads me to the realization “I could never take an oath strong enough to bind my future self to such a course of activity, so I’m almost certainly going to be sitting here for the next 1439 minutes freezing… Oh well.”
I imagine that for the one minute between 10:59 and 11:00, my emotional state would be dominated by excitement about whether this crazy idea will actually work, and maybe if I can snap my fingers at just a second before the time on the clock switches, it’ll be like I actually just cast a magic spell that teleports me to a tropical paradise. There’s also the fun of the moments when first arriving in a tropical paradise and realising that it actually worked, which is a bit wireheadey to invoke repeatedly 1,000 times, but the fact that it’s to fulfil a past oath should justify it enough to not feel icky about it.