That sounds like solid reasoning for the Paxlovid case. However, for the more personal situations, notching the probability up to ~100% doesn’t seem right to me. I get the sense that it isn’t too implausible for the actor to have good reason to “keep quiet”. Or, rather, for the actor to think that they have good reason to keep quiet.
An example of this that comes to mind is the last time I visited my grandparents. They are 90+ years old and should not be driving. Plus, I am particularlycrazy about the dangers of driving. Before the trip we agreed that we would all hang out at home and avoid driving. But then during the trip, they wanted to go out. I would say no. They would ask why. I would say I don’t want to talk about it. They would say I’m being unreasonable by restricting us and not giving a reason why. But if you think a few moves ahead, what happens when I give my explanation? I don’t want them to know I have this anxiety about death (and I don’t want to impose that anxiety on them given that they are close to death, although I think that would be unlikely). And I don’t want to start an argument about how capable they are of driving. We’ve tried that in the past, and it always balloons into a bigger argument. So I sense that the “keep quiet” route is best for all parties.
I like your example. Perhaps I am a little too inclined to update, either due to typical-minding (I am usually very frank and expect others to be) or due to a kind of misplaced irritation (I want others to justify themselves to me, so if they don’t I ascribe bad things to them.)
That sounds like solid reasoning for the Paxlovid case. However, for the more personal situations, notching the probability up to ~100% doesn’t seem right to me. I get the sense that it isn’t too implausible for the actor to have good reason to “keep quiet”. Or, rather, for the actor to think that they have good reason to keep quiet.
An example of this that comes to mind is the last time I visited my grandparents. They are 90+ years old and should not be driving. Plus, I am particularly crazy about the dangers of driving. Before the trip we agreed that we would all hang out at home and avoid driving. But then during the trip, they wanted to go out. I would say no. They would ask why. I would say I don’t want to talk about it. They would say I’m being unreasonable by restricting us and not giving a reason why. But if you think a few moves ahead, what happens when I give my explanation? I don’t want them to know I have this anxiety about death (and I don’t want to impose that anxiety on them given that they are close to death, although I think that would be unlikely). And I don’t want to start an argument about how capable they are of driving. We’ve tried that in the past, and it always balloons into a bigger argument. So I sense that the “keep quiet” route is best for all parties.
I like your example. Perhaps I am a little too inclined to update, either due to typical-minding (I am usually very frank and expect others to be) or due to a kind of misplaced irritation (I want others to justify themselves to me, so if they don’t I ascribe bad things to them.)