Nathan Helm-Burger comments on How important are accurate AI timelines for the optimal spending schedule on AI risk interventions?

[Nathan Helm-Burger]

Your short timelines don’t seem that short, and your long timelines seem absurdly long.

Edit: removed ’20′ from list on cell 91:line 63

[Tristan Cook]

Mmm. I’m a bit confused about the short timelines: 50% by 2030 and 75% by 2030 seem pretty short to me.

I think the medium timelines I use has a pretty long tail, but the 75% by 2060 is pretty much exactly the Metaculus’ community 75% by 2059.