Perhaps I’m misunderstanding the notion of the anthropic shadow, but it seems like whether it implies anthropic fragility depends strongly on the gears level explanation of what is causing the anthropic shadow.
For example, a tank might have survived a dozen battles where statistically it ought to have been hit and destroyed lots of times, but where it got lucky and was missed each time. In this case the selection effect does not make us think that the tank will perform any differentfly from another tank in the next battle.
So the question is whether we have a plane with holes, that can fly, but can’t land, or if we have a tank that got really lucky, and is currently fine.
Having said that, it still seems plausible to me that I should view the eight degree temperature rise in the fossil record as less reassuring than I generally have due to this sort of argument.
Note: I am aware that this might be already addressed by your text, and I would see that if I closely reread it.
Yes, you are right—fragility depends on the gear level. There is a table in the middle of the text which discussed fragility for eleven different x-risks. For example, there is no fragility for gamma-ray burst. But it is for false vacuum decay, supervolcanos and climate as we can affect them.
Perhaps I’m misunderstanding the notion of the anthropic shadow, but it seems like whether it implies anthropic fragility depends strongly on the gears level explanation of what is causing the anthropic shadow.
For example, a tank might have survived a dozen battles where statistically it ought to have been hit and destroyed lots of times, but where it got lucky and was missed each time. In this case the selection effect does not make us think that the tank will perform any differentfly from another tank in the next battle.
So the question is whether we have a plane with holes, that can fly, but can’t land, or if we have a tank that got really lucky, and is currently fine.
Having said that, it still seems plausible to me that I should view the eight degree temperature rise in the fossil record as less reassuring than I generally have due to this sort of argument.
Note: I am aware that this might be already addressed by your text, and I would see that if I closely reread it.
Yes, you are right—fragility depends on the gear level. There is a table in the middle of the text which discussed fragility for eleven different x-risks. For example, there is no fragility for gamma-ray burst. But it is for false vacuum decay, supervolcanos and climate as we can affect them.