Robin, I suspect that Eliezer has a different perspective on that, given his line of work. Availability bias on which biases to overcome? The creation of a seed AI is an event so rare that is has never happened (so far as we can tell), but failure to get it right on the first try could eliminate all life in the solar system. There is perhaps room for discussing average and better inference abilities with respect to common and rare events, although we would do well to be clear on exactly what we are arguing.
Robin, I suspect that Eliezer has a different perspective on that, given his line of work. Availability bias on which biases to overcome? The creation of a seed AI is an event so rare that is has never happened (so far as we can tell), but failure to get it right on the first try could eliminate all life in the solar system. There is perhaps room for discussing average and better inference abilities with respect to common and rare events, although we would do well to be clear on exactly what we are arguing.