Eliezer, yes sometimes nature includes rare events, but only rarely. We should evaluate human inference abilities on average across the kinds of cases humans face, and not just for rare surprising events.
The plethora of incorrect hypothesis compared to the relatively few correct (so far) theories seem to speak against this.
Eliezer, yes sometimes nature includes rare events, but only rarely. We should evaluate human inference abilities on average across the kinds of cases humans face, and not just for rare surprising events.
The plethora of incorrect hypothesis compared to the relatively few correct (so far) theories seem to speak against this.