You need to do a lot more to demonstrate irrationality than this. Obviously, as other commenters have pointed out, there are an infinite number of rules that agree with any given finite sequence of experimental results so obviously you can never conclusively demonstrate that your rule is indeed the correct one. Moreover, you can’t even be ‘bias free’ in the sense of assigning all possible rules the same probability unless you want to assign each rule probability 0.
Now you might be tempted to just give up at this point but this is exactly the same problem we face when doing science. We have an infinite number of possible rules that extend the results we have seen so far and we need to guess which is most likely. Amazingly we do it pretty well but justifying it seems impossible, it’s the classical philosophical problem of induction.
In short it’s not clear anyone is ‘wrong’. Maybe they have a good initial probability distribution for what sorts of rules people normally pick. Heck it’s not even clear what it means to be ‘wrong’ in this sense, i.e., having an implausible a priori probability distribution
You need to do a lot more to demonstrate irrationality than this. Obviously, as other commenters have pointed out, there are an infinite number of rules that agree with any given finite sequence of experimental results so obviously you can never conclusively demonstrate that your rule is indeed the correct one. Moreover, you can’t even be ‘bias free’ in the sense of assigning all possible rules the same probability unless you want to assign each rule probability 0.
Now you might be tempted to just give up at this point but this is exactly the same problem we face when doing science. We have an infinite number of possible rules that extend the results we have seen so far and we need to guess which is most likely. Amazingly we do it pretty well but justifying it seems impossible, it’s the classical philosophical problem of induction.
In short it’s not clear anyone is ‘wrong’. Maybe they have a good initial probability distribution for what sorts of rules people normally pick. Heck it’s not even clear what it means to be ‘wrong’ in this sense, i.e., having an implausible a priori probability distribution