I know that’s what a lot of people refer to it as, but I felt that the word choice “worst case scenario” is a bit too optimistic-sounding about how low the probability is, because I believe modelers give it more than a 10% chance of being the outcome without a lot of climate removal/sequestration/reversal efforts.
Even if you assume no climate policy at all and if you make various other highly pessimistic assumptions about the economy (RCP 8.5), I think it’s still far under 10% conditional on those assumptions, though it’s tricky to extract this kind of estimate.
I know that’s what a lot of people refer to it as, but I felt that the word choice “worst case scenario” is a bit too optimistic-sounding about how low the probability is, because I believe modelers give it more than a 10% chance of being the outcome without a lot of climate removal/sequestration/reversal efforts.
Even if you assume no climate policy at all and if you make various other highly pessimistic assumptions about the economy (RCP 8.5), I think it’s still far under 10% conditional on those assumptions, though it’s tricky to extract this kind of estimate.