Edit to add: historically, nuclear should have been the best option for baseload power. It could have gotten there for slower load-following use if capex had stayed low and gotten lower, in better regulatory regime. The higher capex/lower fuel cost would not have let nuclear replace faster load-following and peaker plants at any time in the past 50 years. Hydro and geothermal could have helped with that, but I’m not sure to what degree, Today energy storage technologies are at a point where they could fill in the gaps like the can for renewables, but that’s only true because of all the government policy kickstarting and supporting their development that Epstein doesn’t think should have happened.
Thank you for the long and detailed response! This was exactly the sort of stuff I was looking for.
I think the foundation of Epstein’s argument—that we should be prioritizing human flourishing (which requires large and increasing amounts of cheap energy) and carefully evaluating the costs and benefits of our choices (not just the costs) is largely accurate.
That being said, you’ve made me think that Epstein’s treatment of solar, wind, and other alternatives to fossil fuels is perhaps too short and/or not up-to-date.
Out of curiosity, how long would you expect it to take for a large percentage of the world (say, already-developed economies) to move to getting 90% of our energy needs from non-carbon-emitting sources? Based on my own understanding, what you’ve said, and the current state of permitting and environmental review, I’d guess no sooner than 2050 at the very earliest, with 2075 being more likely.
I think that’s a very reasonable range, with more developed countires likely getting there by the 2050s and others a bit later.
Most countries and companies that have stated net-zero goals have set them in the 2040-2050 time frame. And that’s not just because all the current leaders will be retired by then :-). All the ones that don’t have aggressive commitments will take longer.
I think 2075 is a bit conservative actually? Economically speaking I would doubt any developed country is still building coal plants by 2030 or gas plants by 2040, the ones that do get built are already increasingly using designs chosen to be retrofittable for other fuels (hydrogen, methanol, biofuels, etc.), and more of them are being used for peaker plants and not baseload (lower utilization, so they make up a smaller fraction of generation relative to nameplate capacity). Plus the existing stock will mostly all be retired by the early 2050s. By the early 2030s I’d expect renewables + storage to be cheaper to build than anything but natural gas plants even in developing countries.
Like you said, permitting and reviews are some of the big limiters here. We are plausibly talking about 10,000-200,000 km2 of solar panels, worldwide, for a complete transition combined with continued economic growth. The Australian Outback might be one of the best places in the world to make green hydrogen, for example, but it’s also one of the largest mostly-undeveloped wilderness regions remaining. Somehow arguments like “Yeah, but even more will be lost if we don’t replace fossil fuels, and all the other options are worse” seem to lack the power to overcome project-specific objections.
Edit to add: historically, nuclear should have been the best option for baseload power. It could have gotten there for slower load-following use if capex had stayed low and gotten lower, in better regulatory regime. The higher capex/lower fuel cost would not have let nuclear replace faster load-following and peaker plants at any time in the past 50 years. Hydro and geothermal could have helped with that, but I’m not sure to what degree, Today energy storage technologies are at a point where they could fill in the gaps like the can for renewables, but that’s only true because of all the government policy kickstarting and supporting their development that Epstein doesn’t think should have happened.
Thank you for the long and detailed response! This was exactly the sort of stuff I was looking for.
I think the foundation of Epstein’s argument—that we should be prioritizing human flourishing (which requires large and increasing amounts of cheap energy) and carefully evaluating the costs and benefits of our choices (not just the costs) is largely accurate.
That being said, you’ve made me think that Epstein’s treatment of solar, wind, and other alternatives to fossil fuels is perhaps too short and/or not up-to-date.
Out of curiosity, how long would you expect it to take for a large percentage of the world (say, already-developed economies) to move to getting 90% of our energy needs from non-carbon-emitting sources? Based on my own understanding, what you’ve said, and the current state of permitting and environmental review, I’d guess no sooner than 2050 at the very earliest, with 2075 being more likely.
I think that’s a very reasonable range, with more developed countires likely getting there by the 2050s and others a bit later.
Most countries and companies that have stated net-zero goals have set them in the 2040-2050 time frame. And that’s not just because all the current leaders will be retired by then :-). All the ones that don’t have aggressive commitments will take longer.
I think 2075 is a bit conservative actually? Economically speaking I would doubt any developed country is still building coal plants by 2030 or gas plants by 2040, the ones that do get built are already increasingly using designs chosen to be retrofittable for other fuels (hydrogen, methanol, biofuels, etc.), and more of them are being used for peaker plants and not baseload (lower utilization, so they make up a smaller fraction of generation relative to nameplate capacity). Plus the existing stock will mostly all be retired by the early 2050s. By the early 2030s I’d expect renewables + storage to be cheaper to build than anything but natural gas plants even in developing countries.
Like you said, permitting and reviews are some of the big limiters here. We are plausibly talking about 10,000-200,000 km2 of solar panels, worldwide, for a complete transition combined with continued economic growth. The Australian Outback might be one of the best places in the world to make green hydrogen, for example, but it’s also one of the largest mostly-undeveloped wilderness regions remaining. Somehow arguments like “Yeah, but even more will be lost if we don’t replace fossil fuels, and all the other options are worse” seem to lack the power to overcome project-specific objections.