Re the superhuman next prediction ability, there’s an issue in which the evaluations are fairly distorted in ways which make humans artificially worse than they actually are at next-token prediction, see here:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/htrZrxduciZ5QaCjw/language-models-seem-to-be-much-better-than-humans-at-next#wPwSND5mfQ7ncruWs
Re the superhuman next prediction ability, there’s an issue in which the evaluations are fairly distorted in ways which make humans artificially worse than they actually are at next-token prediction, see here:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/htrZrxduciZ5QaCjw/language-models-seem-to-be-much-better-than-humans-at-next#wPwSND5mfQ7ncruWs