A while ago ago I asked LW about their take on Aubrey’s prediction (forecasting a massive and sudden shift in public awareness on the feasibility of anti-aging technology) and about how, if it is accurate, one could make money out of knowing that.
I got several answers on the first question (summary: people aren’t buying it) but none on the second. Is there any way to bet on this? I know very little about pubic trading, but it feels like such a big event ought to affect the stock market somehow. Am I wrong, or is it too difficult to estimate how?
The market participants that benefit from it will be anti-aging startups who will have more access to late-stage rounds of funding and the venture funds (Laura Demings fund and Kizoo Ventures) that invest into them. All of them aren’t publically traded.
Won’t there be more indirect consequences? If we suddenly expect people to live longer, even if it the technology will take a while to be around, wouldn’t that benefit some companies relative to others?
Public awareness of the feasibility of anti-aging technology is not the same thing as actual life-expectancy as far as serious people estimate it.
If you belief that serious estimates of actual life-expectancy change, I guess there might be some financial products that securitize pension obligations that are tradable.
Is there a reason why it wouldn’t be strongly correlated?
Your “serious” modifier sounds to me like you’re envisioning the consensus among masses to change while smart people are more sober. I was largely assuming that, in the worlds where Aubrey’s prediction is true, actual life expectancy does, in fact, increase along with the awareness shift. Note that it’s expectancy rather than actual life span.
Serious here means the data-driven models that are currently used for pricing. If you look on long-term prices of properties that are effected by climate change I don’t think there’s are strongly affected by changes in public opinion.
A while ago ago I asked LW about their take on Aubrey’s prediction (forecasting a massive and sudden shift in public awareness on the feasibility of anti-aging technology) and about how, if it is accurate, one could make money out of knowing that.
I got several answers on the first question (summary: people aren’t buying it) but none on the second. Is there any way to bet on this? I know very little about pubic trading, but it feels like such a big event ought to affect the stock market somehow. Am I wrong, or is it too difficult to estimate how?
The market participants that benefit from it will be anti-aging startups who will have more access to late-stage rounds of funding and the venture funds (Laura Demings fund and Kizoo Ventures) that invest into them. All of them aren’t publically traded.
Won’t there be more indirect consequences? If we suddenly expect people to live longer, even if it the technology will take a while to be around, wouldn’t that benefit some companies relative to others?
Public awareness of the feasibility of anti-aging technology is not the same thing as actual life-expectancy as far as serious people estimate it.
If you belief that serious estimates of actual life-expectancy change, I guess there might be some financial products that securitize pension obligations that are tradable.
Is there a reason why it wouldn’t be strongly correlated?
Your “serious” modifier sounds to me like you’re envisioning the consensus among masses to change while smart people are more sober. I was largely assuming that, in the worlds where Aubrey’s prediction is true, actual life expectancy does, in fact, increase along with the awareness shift. Note that it’s expectancy rather than actual life span.
Pensions might be a good pointer.
Serious here means the data-driven models that are currently used for pricing. If you look on long-term prices of properties that are effected by climate change I don’t think there’s are strongly affected by changes in public opinion.