A random action that ranks in the top 5% is not the same as the action that maximizes the chance that you will end up at least 95% certain the cauldron is full.
For EU quantilization. But you could apply quantilization to beliefs rather than the utilities. (I don’t think it would work as well because I immediately wonder how many different ways belief quantilization breaks the probability axioms and renders any such agent inconsistent & Dutch-bookable, and this illustrates why people generally discuss EU quantilization instead.)
The proposal is known as ‘quantilization’ eg https://intelligence.org/2015/11/29/new-paper-quantilizers/
A random action that ranks in the top 5% is not the same as the action that maximizes the chance that you will end up at least 95% certain the cauldron is full.
For EU quantilization. But you could apply quantilization to beliefs rather than the utilities. (I don’t think it would work as well because I immediately wonder how many different ways belief quantilization breaks the probability axioms and renders any such agent inconsistent & Dutch-bookable, and this illustrates why people generally discuss EU quantilization instead.)
Thanks Gwern that seems pretty similar to what I had in mind.