ie. if an AGI goes foom, I pay you $120 and if it doesn’t, you pay me $40. (Payment through Paypal.) Given your expressed odds, this should look like a good deal to you.
Ι said I assign 2% probability on an AGI going FOOM in the story. So how would this look like a good deal for me?
The odds I offered to ChristianKI were meant to express a middle ground between the odds I expressed (2%) and the odds he expressed (65%) so that the bet would seem about equally profitable to both of us, given our stated probabilities.
Bah! Fine then, we won’t bet. IMO, you should have offered more generous terms. If your true probability is 2%, then that’s an odds against of 1:49, while his 65% would be 1:0.53, if I’m cranking the formula right. So a 1:2 doesn’t seem like a true split.
You are probably right about how it’s not a true split—I just did a stupid “add and divide by 2” on the percentages, but it doesn’t really work like that.. He would anticipate to lose once every 3 times, but given my percentages I anticipated to lose once every 50 times. (I’m not very mathy at all)
Ι said I assign 2% probability on an AGI going FOOM in the story. So how would this look like a good deal for me?
The odds I offered to ChristianKI were meant to express a middle ground between the odds I expressed (2%) and the odds he expressed (65%) so that the bet would seem about equally profitable to both of us, given our stated probabilities.
Bah! Fine then, we won’t bet. IMO, you should have offered more generous terms. If your true probability is 2%, then that’s an odds against of 1:49, while his 65% would be 1:0.53, if I’m cranking the formula right. So a 1:2 doesn’t seem like a true split.
You are probably right about how it’s not a true split—I just did a stupid “add and divide by 2” on the percentages, but it doesn’t really work like that.. He would anticipate to lose once every 3 times, but given my percentages I anticipated to lose once every 50 times. (I’m not very mathy at all)