I now reckon Pr(sockpuppet) ~= 0.75
A bit of googling would point to Ella being a Filipino girl with a FB and a Twitter account.
Noted. Probability estimate duly nudged downward. (And Pr(meatpuppet) increased just a little.)
Yup, Ella is from Albay in the Phillipines. She is an aspiring rationalist who was introduced to Less Wrong through Intentional Insights content.
A bit of googling would point to Ella being a Filipino girl with a FB and a Twitter account.
Noted. Probability estimate duly nudged downward. (And Pr(meatpuppet) increased just a little.)
Yup, Ella is from Albay in the Phillipines. She is an aspiring rationalist who was introduced to Less Wrong through Intentional Insights content.