I agree with Alex’s first points, but it’s not clear to me that this part follows:
So to me, the current case rates are clearly a spike of risk worth changing my behavior for, and worth waiting out.
It seems likely that there will be a spike this winter, but then by next summer (and the following winter) COVID will have faded to just being a flu-like minor consideration.
In which case, yeah this is not the new normal forever, but also it’ll probably get worse one more time before it gets better.
Maybe call this the “bouncing ball” model. Each bounce lower than the last. At some point the bounces are too low to care about. We probably have one non-trivial bounce left.
I agree with Alex’s first points, but it’s not clear to me that this part follows:
It seems likely that there will be a spike this winter, but then by next summer (and the following winter) COVID will have faded to just being a flu-like minor consideration.
In which case, yeah this is not the new normal forever, but also it’ll probably get worse one more time before it gets better.
Maybe call this the “bouncing ball” model. Each bounce lower than the last. At some point the bounces are too low to care about. We probably have one non-trivial bounce left.