This first line gets show in the index, even though it is in spoilers. This should probably be considered a bug.
The world was less complex in the past, which made optimization easier (but institutions only have a set amount of optimization power).
Values were less complex in the past, which made it easier to optimize for them.
America is no longer an expanding empire. Samo Burja has a theory of functioning institutions in which having new worlds to explore and new realms to conquer makes institutions healthier because leaders they can provide some of the expanding pie to their subordinates, rather than fighting for pieces of the existing pie.
Lack of a true rival/enemy/antagonist/threat to drive America to greatness. The Soviet Union might have been this. An alien invasion might have provided this. But right now Americans fight other Americans.
Relatedly, America’s culture of ever striving for more might have worked while they were an expanding empire, but backfires once they are not.
The fall of the Soviet union enables the American underclass to gain class consciousness and rebel against bourgeoisie
Americans have become dumber.
Uninspiring topmost American political offices. Ulysses S. Grant, Roosvelt and Eisenhower give way to Ronald Reagan, Biden, and Trump.
Lack of virtue in topmost American political offices. Marital scandals, corruption, underhanded tactics siphon off the spirit of a nation.
American public officials have gained class consciousness as a separate political entity with its own interests separate from those of the masses they serve.
American teachers being less respected means less teachers means worse role models means worse and less curious and capable students means civics can’t be taught.
America started soul-searching after WW2/Vietnam war/ 9/11 attacks / a variety of other events, and it hasn’t stopped
Stigmatization of cigarettes means that Americans are much more pent-up.
American morals become more complex, which means that its easier to infringe on them, which means that more people gain small status points by pointing them out, which leads to societal conflict.
Conquest’s second law of politics “Any organization not explicitly right-wing sooner or later becomes left-wing” means that American conservatives leave to form their own organizations, and there are fewer institutions to uphold shared values.
America has become more connected and homogeneous, which means that different states don’t try different things and see what works
In becoming more complex, American morals stifle trying out new things and seeing what works.
Same but with laws rather than morals.
Americans are less willing to casually disregard parts of their population, which makes everything more difficult.
Lack of one clear common American pecking order leads to more infighting.
A substantial population of Americans cease to identify as “Americans” in any meaningful sense.
Americans have become more arrogant, which means that they cease to import habits and cultural technologies when they work better.
American universities becoming more mediocre and producing worse leaders.
America becoming less religious has ripple effects
The decline of the impulse to beat up troublemakers in America means that there are more of them.
American nerds collectively gaining more power while having poor social skills.
Some ripple effect of the decline of the Italian-American mafia. For example, maybe knowing that if you pissed someone enough they could hire someone to kill you had a salutatory social effect.
Rising income inequality in the United States due to the decline of the labor unions leads to social division.
Poor American architecture leads to people using public social spaces less.
Elite overproduction. In particular, you might be able to control a number of people with O(sqrt(n)) people or with O(log(n)) people, but this means that as n grows a smaller proportion of people can be leaders.
American baby boomers or whatever generation is currently in power having had some nutrient deficiency in childhood which makes them less cooperative
American public spaces smell worse / are more noisy / more polluted … so people use them less.
Cultural division being economically more profitable
Old institutions having more prestige and thus having more to loose by shaking things up and trying new things.
In combination with a lack of a world war to renew American institutions.
Southern Americans not having been convincingly defeated in the first American civil war, or thinking that they could win a second round.
Lack of a culture of creating small local institutions, spreading the know-how of how to do it.
Succession problem having never been solved in America, which means that it still depends on great leaders to correct institutions.
The decline of Freemasons or some other secret cabal as a stabilizing force behind key institutions. Crucially, old-school Freemasons apparently banned discussion of religion and politics.
American institutions successfully being sabotaged by rival powers
Americans giving less of a fuck about their institutions.
Indisputable Canadian superiority in all things leads to either denial or a desire to imitate them, which spits the population.
Same but with Scandinavian countries.
Americans having more interesting things to distract themselves with. That is, creating institutions is as satisfactory as it ever was, but other things are more satisfactory in comparison.
Rise of (individual) hedonism
Some demographic change having ripple effects.
Americans read less of the classics and thus notice fewer skulls and make mistakes again and again
America having unprocessed trauma and subconsciously wanting to fail.
There is now no large majority of Americans who have a common coherent extrapolated volition, so institutions can’t implement it.
There is nothing to explain; institutions are as healthy as they ever were, and, e.g. availability bias makes us only notice the failures.
This first line gets show in the index, even though it is in spoilers. This should probably be considered a bug.
The world was less complex in the past, which made optimization easier (but institutions only have a set amount of optimization power).
Values were less complex in the past, which made it easier to optimize for them.
America is no longer an expanding empire. Samo Burja has a theory of functioning institutions in which having new worlds to explore and new realms to conquer makes institutions healthier because leaders they can provide some of the expanding pie to their subordinates, rather than fighting for pieces of the existing pie.
Lack of a true rival/enemy/antagonist/threat to drive America to greatness. The Soviet Union might have been this. An alien invasion might have provided this. But right now Americans fight other Americans.
Relatedly, America’s culture of ever striving for more might have worked while they were an expanding empire, but backfires once they are not.
The fall of the Soviet union enables the American underclass to gain class consciousness and rebel against bourgeoisie
Americans have become dumber.
Uninspiring topmost American political offices. Ulysses S. Grant, Roosvelt and Eisenhower give way to Ronald Reagan, Biden, and Trump.
Lack of virtue in topmost American political offices. Marital scandals, corruption, underhanded tactics siphon off the spirit of a nation.
American public officials have gained class consciousness as a separate political entity with its own interests separate from those of the masses they serve.
American teachers being less respected means less teachers means worse role models means worse and less curious and capable students means civics can’t be taught.
America started soul-searching after WW2/Vietnam war/ 9/11 attacks / a variety of other events, and it hasn’t stopped
Stigmatization of cigarettes means that Americans are much more pent-up.
American morals become more complex, which means that its easier to infringe on them, which means that more people gain small status points by pointing them out, which leads to societal conflict.
Conquest’s second law of politics “Any organization not explicitly right-wing sooner or later becomes left-wing” means that American conservatives leave to form their own organizations, and there are fewer institutions to uphold shared values.
America has become more connected and homogeneous, which means that different states don’t try different things and see what works
In becoming more complex, American morals stifle trying out new things and seeing what works.
Same but with laws rather than morals.
Americans are less willing to casually disregard parts of their population, which makes everything more difficult.
Lack of one clear common American pecking order leads to more infighting.
A substantial population of Americans cease to identify as “Americans” in any meaningful sense.
Americans have become more arrogant, which means that they cease to import habits and cultural technologies when they work better.
American universities becoming more mediocre and producing worse leaders.
America becoming less religious has ripple effects
The decline of the impulse to beat up troublemakers in America means that there are more of them.
American nerds collectively gaining more power while having poor social skills.
Some ripple effect of the decline of the Italian-American mafia. For example, maybe knowing that if you pissed someone enough they could hire someone to kill you had a salutatory social effect.
Rising income inequality in the United States due to the decline of the labor unions leads to social division.
Poor American architecture leads to people using public social spaces less.
Elite overproduction. In particular, you might be able to control a number of people with O(sqrt(n)) people or with O(log(n)) people, but this means that as n grows a smaller proportion of people can be leaders.
American baby boomers or whatever generation is currently in power having had some nutrient deficiency in childhood which makes them less cooperative
American public spaces smell worse / are more noisy / more polluted … so people use them less.
Cultural division being economically more profitable
Old institutions having more prestige and thus having more to loose by shaking things up and trying new things.
In combination with a lack of a world war to renew American institutions.
Southern Americans not having been convincingly defeated in the first American civil war, or thinking that they could win a second round.
Lack of a culture of creating small local institutions, spreading the know-how of how to do it.
Succession problem having never been solved in America, which means that it still depends on great leaders to correct institutions.
The decline of Freemasons or some other secret cabal as a stabilizing force behind key institutions. Crucially, old-school Freemasons apparently banned discussion of religion and politics.
American institutions successfully being sabotaged by rival powers
Americans giving less of a fuck about their institutions.
Indisputable Canadian superiority in all things leads to either denial or a desire to imitate them, which spits the population.
Same but with Scandinavian countries.
Americans having more interesting things to distract themselves with. That is, creating institutions is as satisfactory as it ever was, but other things are more satisfactory in comparison.
Rise of (individual) hedonism
Some demographic change having ripple effects.
Americans read less of the classics and thus notice fewer skulls and make mistakes again and again
America having unprocessed trauma and subconsciously wanting to fail.
There is now no large majority of Americans who have a common coherent extrapolated volition, so institutions can’t implement it.
There is nothing to explain; institutions are as healthy as they ever were, and, e.g. availability bias makes us only notice the failures.