You talk about real evidence, but you don’t unpack “real”. For my money, the crucial point is whether you made an active effort to find evidence. It’s rather vacuous to say there is no evidence, meaning that it has not landed on your doorstep. And it’s a great way of supporting biases.
The idea that you need to actively seek confirmation, and, much more importantly, refutation is central to the Popperian approach. The Bayesian approach seems strangely passive, by contrast.
In a Bayesian context, seeking evidence is about narrowing the probability distribution from what should be a relatively flat prior. One could probably make a case for not making a decision until the cost of putting it off outweighs the gain by decreasing the uncertainty.
“Narrowing” can be passive or active. Passive narrowing is going to be a lot less efficient than active narrowing. If you are in a position to wait for as long as it takes , that would not be a problem...but you aren’t’t. You also don’t have a pre existing mental database of every possible hypothesis, or the ability to assign infinitesimal probabilities to them.
You talk about real evidence, but you don’t unpack “real”. For my money, the crucial point is whether you made an active effort to find evidence. It’s rather vacuous to say there is no evidence, meaning that it has not landed on your doorstep. And it’s a great way of supporting biases.
The idea that you need to actively seek confirmation, and, much more importantly, refutation is central to the Popperian approach. The Bayesian approach seems strangely passive, by contrast.
In a Bayesian context, seeking evidence is about narrowing the probability distribution from what should be a relatively flat prior. One could probably make a case for not making a decision until the cost of putting it off outweighs the gain by decreasing the uncertainty.
“Narrowing” can be passive or active. Passive narrowing is going to be a lot less efficient than active narrowing. If you are in a position to wait for as long as it takes , that would not be a problem...but you aren’t’t. You also don’t have a pre existing mental database of every possible hypothesis, or the ability to assign infinitesimal probabilities to them.