I agree with jbash that the value of larger, more specialized structures is sufficient to justify the autofac economy being made up of units besides just the autofacs.
That doesn’t seem like a blocker to the general concept. You just need a slightly more complicated plan. With the rate at which AI is progressing these days, it doesn’t seem to me that plan complication is going to be a barrier.
So the real questions that stand out to me are:
What would the seed cost be to get the initial autofac economy to the scale that it’s exports would more than pay for its imports?
Of the various potential specialized facilities, which ones make economic sense at which scales?
What sort of timeframe does it make sense to operate at sub-profitable scale for, while building things which have internal value that outweighs the cost of interest incurred by operating at a loss?
How much more powerful than current AI would the VLM control system need to be for the initial stages?
Would the development pace of AI keep pace with the increasing complexity as the autofac economy ramps up? (my guess is yes)
What things are worth importing versus making do with self-built?
Computer chips, certainly. Cutting lasers? Probably at least some. The initial parts for the first set of autofacs. Specialty metals and alloys. It’s more a question of how much to import, and the costs versus export value.
I agree with jbash that the value of larger, more specialized structures is sufficient to justify the autofac economy being made up of units besides just the autofacs.
That doesn’t seem like a blocker to the general concept. You just need a slightly more complicated plan. With the rate at which AI is progressing these days, it doesn’t seem to me that plan complication is going to be a barrier.
So the real questions that stand out to me are:
What would the seed cost be to get the initial autofac economy to the scale that it’s exports would more than pay for its imports?
Of the various potential specialized facilities, which ones make economic sense at which scales?
What sort of timeframe does it make sense to operate at sub-profitable scale for, while building things which have internal value that outweighs the cost of interest incurred by operating at a loss?
How much more powerful than current AI would the VLM control system need to be for the initial stages?
Would the development pace of AI keep pace with the increasing complexity as the autofac economy ramps up? (my guess is yes)
What things are worth importing versus making do with self-built?
Computer chips, certainly. Cutting lasers? Probably at least some. The initial parts for the first set of autofacs. Specialty metals and alloys. It’s more a question of how much to import, and the costs versus export value.