Maybe the flaw isn’t in Bayesian analysis per se—maybe the flaw is in expecting all claims to be falsifiable. Any theory of reality will ultimately depend on some unfalsifiable claims, which are really just the axioms.
Bayesian analysis treats the earliest priors as axioms, because they are considered to be beyond the scope of analysis. This would be the “incompleteness” described in Godel’s Incompleteness Theorem.
Tl;dr: Frequentism, reductionism, and Bayesian probability—are all tools we can use, and you helped us see their inherent limits.
Maybe the flaw isn’t in Bayesian analysis per se—maybe the flaw is in expecting all claims to be falsifiable. Any theory of reality will ultimately depend on some unfalsifiable claims, which are really just the axioms.
Bayesian analysis treats the earliest priors as axioms, because they are considered to be beyond the scope of analysis. This would be the “incompleteness” described in Godel’s Incompleteness Theorem.
Tl;dr: Frequentism, reductionism, and Bayesian probability—are all tools we can use, and you helped us see their inherent limits.