In Smolin’s view, the scientific establishment is good at making small iterations to existing theories and bad at creating radically new theories.
I agree with this.
It’s therefore not implausible that the solution to quantum gravity could come from a decade of solitary amateur work by someone totally outside the scientific establishment.
For me, this sounds very implausible. Although the scientific establishment isn’t geared towars creating radically new theories, I think it is even harder to create such ideas from the outside. I agree that most researchers in acadamia are narrowly specialized and not interested in challenging widely shared assumptions but the people who do are also in acadamia. I think that you focus too much on the question-the-orthodoxy part. In order to come up with something useful you need to develop a deep understanding and to bounce around ideas in a fertile environment. I think that both have become increasingly difficult for people outside of acadamia because of the complexity of the concepts involved.
The evidence you cite doesn’t seem to support your assertion: Although Rovelli holds some idiosynratic ideas, his career path led him through typical prestigous institutions. So he certainly cannot be considered to stand “totally outside the scientific establishment”.
I agree with this.
For me, this sounds very implausible. Although the scientific establishment isn’t geared towars creating radically new theories, I think it is even harder to create such ideas from the outside. I agree that most researchers in acadamia are narrowly specialized and not interested in challenging widely shared assumptions but the people who do are also in acadamia. I think that you focus too much on the question-the-orthodoxy part. In order to come up with something useful you need to develop a deep understanding and to bounce around ideas in a fertile environment. I think that both have become increasingly difficult for people outside of acadamia because of the complexity of the concepts involved.
The evidence you cite doesn’t seem to support your assertion: Although Rovelli holds some idiosynratic ideas, his career path led him through typical prestigous institutions. So he certainly cannot be considered to stand “totally outside the scientific establishment”.