I’m not claiming this (again, it’s about relative not absolute likelihood).
I’m confused. I was comparing the likelihood of (3) to the likelihood of (1) and (2); i.e. saying something about relative likelihood, no?
I’m not saying this is likely, just that this is the most plausible path I see by which UDT leads to nice things for us.
I meant for my main argument to be directed at the claim of relative likelihood; sorry if that was not clear. So I guess my question is: do you think the updatelessness-based trade you described is the most plausible type of acausal trade out of the three that I listed? As said, ECL and simulation-based trade arguably require much fewer assumptions about decision theory. To get ECL off the ground, for example, you arguably just need your decision theory to cooperate in the Twin PD, and many theories satisfy this criterion.
(And the topic of this post is how decision theory leads us to have nice things, not UDT specifically. Or at least I think it should be; I don’t think one ought to be so confident that UDT/FDT is clearly the “correct” theory [not saying this is what you believe], especially given how underdeveloped it is compared to the alternatives.)
I’m confused. I was comparing the likelihood of (3) to the likelihood of (1) and (2); i.e. saying something about relative likelihood, no?
I meant for my main argument to be directed at the claim of relative likelihood; sorry if that was not clear. So I guess my question is: do you think the updatelessness-based trade you described is the most plausible type of acausal trade out of the three that I listed? As said, ECL and simulation-based trade arguably require much fewer assumptions about decision theory. To get ECL off the ground, for example, you arguably just need your decision theory to cooperate in the Twin PD, and many theories satisfy this criterion.
(And the topic of this post is how decision theory leads us to have nice things, not UDT specifically. Or at least I think it should be; I don’t think one ought to be so confident that UDT/FDT is clearly the “correct” theory [not saying this is what you believe], especially given how underdeveloped it is compared to the alternatives.)