Not even close. Imagine if, instead of charities, these are colored balls. And instead of altruistic benefit, you’re getting paid (or money gets sent to your charity of choice). Say I gave you $10, and you get a return of 200:1 on any money placed on the ball that comes out. How do you distribute your money? Any distribution other than all on the most likely loses out.
Alternatively, imagine colored cards in a deck. You guess what color comes next, and you get $10 for every correct guess. What do you guess, assuming cards are replaced every time? In a hundred guesses, do you change your guess 10 times? If you do you’ll lose out.
Not even close. Imagine if, instead of charities, these are colored balls. And instead of altruistic benefit, you’re getting paid (or money gets sent to your charity of choice). Say I gave you $10, and you get a return of 200:1 on any money placed on the ball that comes out. How do you distribute your money? Any distribution other than all on the most likely loses out.
Alternatively, imagine colored cards in a deck. You guess what color comes next, and you get $10 for every correct guess. What do you guess, assuming cards are replaced every time? In a hundred guesses, do you change your guess 10 times? If you do you’ll lose out.