Negatve singularity in my opinion is at least 50 years away.
I take it that you would place (t(positive singularity) | positive singularity) a significant distance further still?
And as a matter of fact it is failing to actually get much in the way of donations, compared to donations to the church which is using hell as a superstimulus, or even compared to campaigns to help puppies (about $10bn in total as far as I can see).
I’m going to say 75 years for that. But really, this is becoming very much total guesswork.
I do know that AGI -ve singularity won’t happen in the next 2 decades and I think one can bet that it won’t happen after that for another few decades either.
I’m going to say 75 years for that. But really, this is becoming very much total guesswork.
It’s still interesting to hear your thoughts. My hunch is that the difficulty of the -ve --> +ve step is much harder than the ‘singularity’ step so I would expect the time estimates to reflect that somewhat. But there are all sorts of complications there and my guesswork is even more guess-like than yours!
I do know that AGI -ve singularity won’t happen in the next 2 decades and I think one can bet that it won’t happen after that for another few decades either.
If you find anyone who is willing to take you up on a bet of that form given any time estimate and any odds then please introduce them to me! ;)
Many plausible ways to S^+ involve something odd or unexpected happening. WBE might make computational political structures, i.e. political structures based inside a computer full of WBEs. This might change the way humans cooperate.
Suffices to say that FAI doesn’t have to come via the expected route of someone inventing AGI and then waiting until they invent “friendliness theory” for it.
I take it that you would place (t(positive singularity) | positive singularity) a significant distance further still?
This got a wry smile out of me. :)
(t(positive singularity) | positive singularity)
I’m going to say 75 years for that. But really, this is becoming very much total guesswork.
I do know that AGI -ve singularity won’t happen in the next 2 decades and I think one can bet that it won’t happen after that for another few decades either.
It’s still interesting to hear your thoughts. My hunch is that the difficulty of the -ve --> +ve step is much harder than the ‘singularity’ step so I would expect the time estimates to reflect that somewhat. But there are all sorts of complications there and my guesswork is even more guess-like than yours!
If you find anyone who is willing to take you up on a bet of that form given any time estimate and any odds then please introduce them to me! ;)
Many plausible ways to S^+ involve something odd or unexpected happening. WBE might make computational political structures, i.e. political structures based inside a computer full of WBEs. This might change the way humans cooperate.
Suffices to say that FAI doesn’t have to come via the expected route of someone inventing AGI and then waiting until they invent “friendliness theory” for it.