Well I guess this is our true point of disagreement. I went to the effort of finding out a lot, went to SIAI and Oxford to learn even more, and in the end I am left seriously disappointed by all this knowedge. In the end it all boils down to:
“most people are irrational, hypocritical and selfish, if you try and tell them they shoot the messenger, and if you try and do anything you bear all the costs, internalize only tiny fractions of the value created if you succeed, and you almost certainly fail to have an effect anyway. And by the way the future is an impending train wreck”
I feel quite strongly that this knowledge is not a worthy thing to have sunk 5 years of my life into getting. I don’t know, XiXiDu, you might prize such knowledge, including all the specifics of how that works out exactly.
If you really strongly value the specifics of this, then yes you probably would on net benefit from the censored knowledge, the knowledge that was never censored because I never posted it, and the knowledge that I never posted because I was never trusted with it anyway. But you still probably won’t get it, because those who hold it correctly infer that the expected value of releasing it is strongly negative from an altruist’s perspective.
The future is probably an impending train wreck. But if we can save the train, then it’ll grow wings and fly up into space while lightning flashes in the background and Dragonforce play a song about fiery battlefields or something. We’re all stuck on the train anyway, so saving it is worth a shot.
I hate to see smart people who give a shit losing to despair. This is still the most important problem and you can still contribute to fixing it.
most people are irrational, hypocritical and selfish, if you try and tell them they shoot the messenger, and if you try and do anything you bear all the costs, internalize only tiny fractions of the value created if you succeed,
So? They’re just kids!
(or)
He glanced over toward his shoulder, and said, “That matter to you?”
I mean I guess I shouldn’t complain that you don’t find this bothers you, because you are, in fact, helping me by doing what you do and being very good at it, but that doesn’t stop it being demotivating for me! I’ll see what I can do regarding quant jobs.
Specifics. Details. The lesson of science is that details can sometimes change the overall conclusion. Also some amount of nerdyness meaning that the statements about human nature weren’t obvious to me.
That doesn’t sound right to me. Indeed, it sounds as though you are depressed :-(
Unsolicited advice over the public internet is rather unlikely to help—but maybe focus for a bit on what you want—and the specifics of how to get to there.
“most people are irrational, hypocritical and selfish, if you try and tell them they shoot the messenger, and if you try and do anything you bear all the costs, internalize only tiny fractions of the value created if you succeed, and you almost certainly fail to have an effect anyway. And by the way the future is an impending train wreck”
Maybe it will all be OK. Maybe the trains fly past each other on separate tracks. We don’t know. There sure as hell isn’t a driver though. All the inside-view evidence points to bad things,with the exception that Big Worlds could turn out nicely. Or horribly.
Well I guess this is our true point of disagreement. I went to the effort of finding out a lot, went to SIAI and Oxford to learn even more, and in the end I am left seriously disappointed by all this knowedge. In the end it all boils down to:
“most people are irrational, hypocritical and selfish, if you try and tell them they shoot the messenger, and if you try and do anything you bear all the costs, internalize only tiny fractions of the value created if you succeed, and you almost certainly fail to have an effect anyway. And by the way the future is an impending train wreck”
I feel quite strongly that this knowledge is not a worthy thing to have sunk 5 years of my life into getting. I don’t know, XiXiDu, you might prize such knowledge, including all the specifics of how that works out exactly.
If you really strongly value the specifics of this, then yes you probably would on net benefit from the censored knowledge, the knowledge that was never censored because I never posted it, and the knowledge that I never posted because I was never trusted with it anyway. But you still probably won’t get it, because those who hold it correctly infer that the expected value of releasing it is strongly negative from an altruist’s perspective.
The future is probably an impending train wreck. But if we can save the train, then it’ll grow wings and fly up into space while lightning flashes in the background and Dragonforce play a song about fiery battlefields or something. We’re all stuck on the train anyway, so saving it is worth a shot.
I hate to see smart people who give a shit losing to despair. This is still the most important problem and you can still contribute to fixing it.
TL;DR: I want to give you a hug.
I disagree with this argument. Pretty strongly. No selfish incentive to speak of.
So? They’re just kids!
(or)
He glanced over toward his shoulder, and said, “That matter to you?”
Caw!
He looked back up and said, “Me neither.”
I mean I guess I shouldn’t complain that you don’t find this bothers you, because you are, in fact, helping me by doing what you do and being very good at it, but that doesn’t stop it being demotivating for me! I’ll see what I can do regarding quant jobs.
I liked the first response better.
This isn’t meant as an insult, but why did it take you 5 years of dedicated effort to learn that?
Specifics. Details. The lesson of science is that details can sometimes change the overall conclusion. Also some amount of nerdyness meaning that the statements about human nature weren’t obvious to me.
That doesn’t sound right to me. Indeed, it sounds as though you are depressed :-(
Unsolicited advice over the public internet is rather unlikely to help—but maybe focus for a bit on what you want—and the specifics of how to get to there.
Upvoted for the excellent summary!
I’m curious about the “future is an impending train wreck” part. That doesn’t seem particularly accurate to me.
Maybe it will all be OK. Maybe the trains fly past each other on separate tracks. We don’t know. There sure as hell isn’t a driver though. All the inside-view evidence points to bad things,with the exception that Big Worlds could turn out nicely. Or horribly.
Perhaps try this one: The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves